Integral Futures:

Projecting Environmental Conditions

In Which Communities of the Future

Will Develop

A synthesis of current studies.

by

Paul Jacobs

HDIS3G: Integral Futures Overview and Application

An Independent Study

Dr. Lanny Law

November 16, 2007

Integral Futures

Abstract

An integral view of the future attempts to account for all of the many factors that affect the future. The future begins in the perception and intention of the individual. Ken Wilber frames four fundamental perspectives; I the interior individual (psycho-spiritual), WE the interior collective (cultural), IT the exterior individual (biological), and IT’S the exterior collective (social). The personal, local and global cultural levels of Spiral Dynamics from subsistence to holistic add a multitude of additional dimensions. In addition there are a variety of personality types, spiritual paths and spiritual gifts to account for. For example the world will appear quite different to a generally calm well meaning person in the midst of a financial crisis than it will to the same person after a windfall. The perception will be quite different if the individual is looking out for themselves or for others, for bodies or for souls. If the surrounding local culture is one of support the perception will be very different from that in a competitive culture. National and world cultures have their effect as well. We come round to the question from quantum physics: Who is looking?

Contents

Integral Futures pp. 1 – 13

Appendix “A” – Future Scenarios 2020 pp. 14 – 29

Appendix “B” – Two Paths to the Future pp. 30 – 32

Appendix “C” – Review of The Chaos Point pp. 33 - 38

A simple scenario.

In the midst of this study I had the opportunity to create a four minute story about losing for the “In the Loop” radio show at the same time that I wanted to write a six to eight minute persuasive talk for Toastmasters. The following result may serve as an introduction to Integral Futures.

2020 Hindsight

Life is good, very good. Yes we have refugees from the coasts and from areas that are turning into deserts. The difference from the past is that we are taking care of them. We are getting them resettled, we are helping them preserve their native cultures, children are being fed, clothed, educated and have health care. As a result instead of growing up to be angry terrorists like in the early part of the century, here in 2020 they may grow up to be good world citizens. In addition our own children and grandchildren feel good about their role in creating and maintaining a world that works and has a brilliant future.

Back in early 2007 I hit bottom. I was loosing hope. Not the first time mind you. In my teens working on the farm I lost hope and concluded that life is just a lot of hard work and no reward and quitting is not an option. Then, when Nixon was reelected, I lost hope in our country and went to South America for a couple years. After my first divorce I lost hope in myself. In 2007 I had been without steady income for four years, middle aged, pot belly, deeply in debt and feeling pretty worthless. As I studied integral futures for graduate school I saw that we were burning fossil fuels as fast as we could dig or pump them out of the ground, carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere were rising exponentially, the ocean temperature had already begun rising, icepacks were melting, we were spending billions on war and not taking care of the children in our own country much less the children of the world, the have / have not divide was steadily growing, it looked like we were doing everything we could to breed terrorists. (Appendix “B”)

Then I found the Network of Spiritual Progressives that was beginning to bring spiritual values to the political arena. Their “Covenant with America” was almost too idealistic for my taste, and I think of myself as a pretty idealistic person. Yet, the basic concepts fit so well with the “Earth Charter” the United Nations Millennium Goals and the recommendations of Ervine Laszlo and other great thinkers. The major points were: 1) Strengthen families by assuring a living wage, child care, health care and an education for all children. 2) “Take personal responsibility for ethical behavior.” 3) “Support efforts to require corporate responsibility.” 4) Include values in education. 5) Use a strategy of nonviolence and generosity, “A Global Marshall Plan.” 6) Protect separation of church and state while encouraging the free discussion of spiritual values.

It looked like a David & Goliath situation and I had seen David crushed too many times. But it caught my attention. Rather than another third party, a smear campaign against someone or something, narrowing the focus to a single issue, attempting to simplify issues, NSP took a radical step forward by opening up the conversation. With a global crisis in the public’s face, candidates who either refused to discuss values or who continued to espouse the values that had created the crisis were less and less appealing. As some candidates began talking about climate change, corporate responsibility, poverty, education, the media, and war others had to respond. As a result these bigger issues replaced the petty bickering that had prevailed. Today democracy is working, there are a variety of town meetings and other ways to be informed and participate in promoting the common good. Due to a combination of regulation and responsibility the media is slowly becoming a vehicle for education rather than commercialism. Individuals and organizations are standing up for what is right rather than what is personally advantageous. This has been a major change. Today the common good is being valued and we are moving toward health.

Check out NSP at www.spiritualprogressives.org or read “The Left Hand of God: Taking our country back from the religious right by Rabbi Michael Lerner.

Wilber’s four quadrants

In A Theory of Everything Ken Wilbur makes the point that the grand majority (70%) of the population is occupied with taking care of their own needs. In my view this leaves little time or energy to consider the common good. The small portion of the population that is aware of the importance of caring for the common good tends to be too narcissistic, too concerned about making waves, to actually do much. Wilber advocates an integral vision that includes four aspects of life that are usually seen separately. “I” is the individual, interior, intentional realm that includes sensation, consciousness, perception, symbols and logic. “WE” is the interior, collective, cultural and includes archetypes, race consciousness and the collective subconscious. “IT” is the exterior, individual, behavioral and includes our bodies, brains, and neuro-functions. “ITS” is the exterior, collective, social realm and includes galaxies, tribes and nations. He notes that technology, the material, tends to develop faster than man’s discernment in using that technology. He is talking about balancing the inner and outer, the manifest and the unmanifest, developing an integral vision. To improve the health of our world we need to work to make the least developed segments of society healthier in their own terms. “Spiritual intelligence is literacy in the practice of transformation. Spiritual intelligence is fast becoming a leadership imperative.” (Wilber 95) This would show up in the way we deal with minorities:

Since a truly integral model does not try to take one level or dimension of development (such as pluralistic, transpersonal, or even integral) and try to force it on everybody, but instead follows the prime directive of working for the health of the overall spiral of development, its approach to minorities is considerably different from typical liberal, conservative, and countercultural approaches. What is required is not to force liberal pluralism, conservative values, green multiculturalism, or holistic ideas on anybody, but to foster the conditions – both interior and exterior – that will allow individuals and cultures to develop through the spiral at their own rate, in their own way. The same is true for a more integral approach to developing countries. (Wilber 99)

Towards the end of the book he says; “unless we put as much attention on the development of consciousness as on the development of material technology – we will simply extend the reach of our collective insanity.” (Wilber130). He asserts that: “an intention to find the One-in-the-Many aligns our hearts and heads with the One-in-the-Many that is Spirit itself as it shines in the world radiantly.” (Wilber 112) He concludes;

“I have always been a strong advocate of meditation. Truly, adopting a new holistic philosophy, believing in Gaia, or even thinking in integral terms – however important those might be, they are the least important when it comes to spiritual transformation. Finding out who believes in all those things: There is the doorway to God.” (Wilber 137)

Hayward, Morrow and Spiral Dynamics

At the World Futures Conference 2007 Dr. Peter Hayward and Rowena Morrow reviewed integral theory noting that both of the traditional methods of casting wide, environmental scanning and STEEP (Solutions To Environmental and Economic Problems), evaluate only the exterior-collective quadrant of Wilber’s four quadrant conception. They reviewed the characteristics of the blue, orange and green levels of Spiral Dynamics. Wilber refers to the result of bringing these two frameworks together as “cross-level analysis.” An example would be scanning the physical quadrant (housing quality) through the world view of the orange meme (as a status symbol compared to the neighbors’ house). Hayward and Morrow add the perspective of the individual to this “cross-level analysis.” They define six perspectives: opportunist, diplomat, expert, achiever, individualist, and strategist. The information gathered in each of these intersects will be influenced by the stage of development of the particular issue (weak signal or mass awareness) and the probability of occurrence. Joseph Voros ends his study of this dynamic by saying:

When you boil it all down, all of our scanning is undertaken through perceptual filters. … Work on the psychology of intelligence analysis has revealed that these filters are not conscious; rather they act as pre-conscious conditioners of not only what we do see, but also what we can see. … The framework presents an analytical tool (cross-level analysis) for examining world views in terms of both the subject doing the viewing and the level of reality (object) being viewed, as well as a notational system to describe it. (Voros 20)

Groff and change

In her pre-World Futures Conference 2007 workshop on change Dr. Linda Groff expanded on the process of development of an issue. No matter which of the classic or new models of change we study we find that a paradigm shift is central to the process. The common Western view is that an advance in technology creates the need for a social change. Other theorists maintain that the paradigm shift begins in the arts or academia. New scientific paradigms are more holistic seeing a dynamic interdependent whole that includes the observer. Dr. Groff sets forth the following hypothesis:

The hypothesis is that all of these areas or aspects of evolution work through us as human beings, and that as we humans evolve, the role of consciousness increases, and we are able to “wake up” and become conscious co-creators with the evolutionary process AND begin to consciously transcend ways in which our behavior was previously determined or conditioned by the other aspects of evolution- - physical, biological, and cultural. (Groff 4)

The way Dr. Groff breaks out these aspects is very close to Wilber’s quadrants. In the end she observes that: models of change are affected by how long one observes the change and the culture one is observing from. The rate of change seems to be increasing and:

Evolution seems to proceed through periods of slower, gradual change that are punctuated by periods of rapid change. Clarifying not only trends but the models of change underlying those trends, can help policy-makers make more informed policy decisions and better prepare for dealing with uncertainty in our contemporary world and future. (Groff 19)

Understanding change would also help us recognize when we are acting in ways that worsen the inevitable crisis and increase the resistance to an impending change. On the other hand observing a positive trend and the ways we support it will help us cooperate and deal with the multiple crises facing the world today. She concludes:

Humans have created all these crises facing the world today. Humans can also solve these problems, but reframing to a globally interdependent world, which also addresses local needs, is necessary. (Groff 21)

Laszlo’s chaos point

In The Chaos Point Ervin Laszlo lists challenges facing mankind (Appendix “B”) and the dynamics of the current counterproductive way of dealing with them. In the appendix to his book he gives an in-depth scientific background for this evolutionary dilemma. He sees global warming and the world situation in general driving us to a chaos point where the trends that have created the situation, if continued, will push it into break down. At the chaos point the system is either launched into a new trajectory of breakthrough or it continues the same trajectory into breakdown. Laszlo enumerates some of the resources available to us to breakthrough. He describes possible breakthrough and breakdown futures. He asks us to envision a world that works for everyone and then gives us pointers as to the actions we can take.

Referring to the future, Laszlo calls for activism rather than optimism or pessimism. He states: “With few exceptions, today’s political leadership refuses to take cognizance of”…the impending catastrophe because this would not be politically realistic or even patriotic.

The silver lining at the edge of these gathering storm clouds is that when more and more people become aware that the urgently needed transformation is not taking place, more and more wake up to the need to do something about it. Eventually, a point will be reached where even transformation-oriented measures become politically realistic.” (Laszlo 86)

He ends saying: “Ours is not a time for despair; it is a time for action. Not short-term remedial action, but action aimed at bringing about fundamental transformation.” (Laszlo 87)

Minnesota Pollution Control Agency: Sustainability

At the 2007 Minnesota Pollution Control Agency conference on “Preparing your community for climate and energy change: Opportunities for local sustainability,” the four presenters all made a case that economic change will be accelerated due to increasing oil prices. Climate change is well accepted, changes are already documented, and each presenter contributed to the picture of possible climactic changes. However presenters didn’t need to base their call for planning on any of the speculation about the effects of climate change. They based their plea on the fact that we have greatly increased the number of gas wells, oil wells, coal mines, and other sources of fossil fuels to barely keep up with demand. Indications are that we either hit peak fossil fuel production last year or will do so in the next couple years. As it becomes more costly to get at a more limited supply of fossil fuels the cost of those fuels will increase. This will impact all of us and city planners need to take measures to temper that impact.

Conferees talked about energy conservation, solar energy, wind energy, increasing mass transit, building bikeways, encouraging walking and exercise, recycling, and other ways we as individuals and communities can live more healthily and decrease our dependence on fossil fuels. These are all no-regrets strategies that can lead to economic, social and environmental benefits. The Environmental Commissioner of Ontario, Gord Miller, is a strong advocate of what he terms re-localization. He uses older cities where everything is within walking distance as his example of the direction we should be planning to go.

The Metro Council: Infrastructure

Speakers at the Metro Council 2007 Regional Policy Conference brought up the importance of redistributing resources. In a Q&A one of the city planners from an aging upper class area of the city asked: “Why should our tax dollars go to educate someone else’s children? Why should we pay for a light rail that isn’t going through our neighborhood?” What may benefit the individual voter, thus getting his vote, may not be in the long term best interest of everyone. What may provide immediate profit to the corporation, thus motivating a publicity campaign and gathering votes may harm all of us in the long run. The Metro Council and similar, quasi independent, big picture, long term, planners are essential to our future viability.

Excellent public transit becomes more important daily. Metro wide wastewater control is essential. Affordable housing is essential. An adequate and clean supply of water is essential. The chair, Peter Bell, asked if the Metropolitan Council should get involved in healthcare and education. The quality of both will determine the quality of our future. To me it appears that our democratic process cannot make healthy choices in this area. City planners can do little without funding. To create a healthy future the voter must choose to tax herself today, for the wellbeing of future generations. Will she do it?

Futuring: opportunities for application

The themes of education, creativity, and healthcare ran through the various workshops of the World Futures 2007 conference. Better living through chemistry, nutrition and technology were discussed, advocated and opposed. It seemed that most speakers and participants recognized that an improved home life, nutrition and an educational setting which encourages children to develop morals, ethics, learning skills, creativity and ultimately wisdom is essential to the future well being of the planet. One speaker asserted that the capacity to think is a result of virtues, identifying with something that transcends the personal identity.

The aging of the boomer generation will effect all aspects of life as we know it. There was much discussion of declining first world populations and the burgeoning of third world populations who desire a first world lifestyle. Much of current policy appears to increase the educational, healthcare and income disparities. This is setting the stage for extensive starvation, population displacement, terrorism and massive rebellion or war.

Economic development is important to both the local and the international village. However charity or top down governmental programs tend to fail at best and do great damage at their worst. In development efforts in both South Dakota and Switzerland experience confirms the importance of extensive community building, community involvement, careful planning and the participation of industry that is committed to long term stability. Returns on these investments may not be as immediate as on some others but appear to be better in the long run. Employers who are socially and environmentally responsible are setting the standard for the future.

So what are the characteristics of the leaders that will facilitate all these changes? Gary Marx, president of Center for Public Outreach and author of Future Focused Leadership, maintains that the effective leader will be an interconnected generalist. The qualities of curiosity, persistence and imagination; the ability to achieve both breadth and depth of understanding; and a holistic approach to problems are essential in leaders. The future focused leader will share power and information knowing that this contributes to the synergy that is essential in a rapidly changing world.

At the World Futures 2007 Conference a panel on poverty and the discussion following it reinforced the importance of community creation and control of development efforts. It also addressed the immensity of the barrier that poor nutrition, poor health, lack of education and the fallout from these is to improving the lives of the poor. It is essential that a community identify its assets and the stakeholders. Only then can objectives and action plans controlled by the community and backed by tools be successful in raising the standard of living. It is important that funding be local even if it must be seeded from outside the community. There are many successful projects based on these principles including the “New Village Movement” in South Korea.

The need for a change in paradigm came up again and again. Those trapped in generational poverty need to shift from an external to an internal locus of control. Our behavior would change if we could recognize that we are always in the process of discovering truth, that there is no “the truth”, that we are all connected, that we create our own reality, and that everyone is moving toward what they perceive to be their good. Having a self narrative of self efficacy and self-responsibility would give us the courage to make decisions knowing we could fail. Shifting education from facts and figures to creativity and virtue would greatly expand planetary capacity to deal with change. Jim Morris of Bristlecone Learning identified the critical skills of the future as: learning, choosing and relating. Creating scenarios, looking for trends, and developing strategy out of these paradigms could generate a future quite different from the one we seem to be headed for.

Lynn Groff and several other presenters encouraged participants to develop scenarios based in self-narratives. This advice is based on the understanding that though we cannot predict the future we do create the future. Adding integral thinking to this exercise and putting all these possibilities on an Implications Wheel to identify possible consequences may reveal many of the low probability and wild card possibilities that could otherwise go unidentified.

Future Scenarios

I attempted to view the future from each of six different personality types in each of three different worlds which were either in breakdown or in breakthrough. This process generated many different possibilities. The least favorable were the result of protecting personal interest in an adversarial world. The most favorable were the result of individuals nurtured in a safe environment looking out for the common good. Statistically 40% of the population and 30% of the power tend to support the unfavorable scenario and 10% of the population and 30% of the power support the favorable scenario. As Ervin Laszlo points out it is time for action. Those who tend to support the unfavorable scenario also tend to believe strongly in the principles and values taught by the great teachers of the world. These principles and values are in alignment with the favorable scenarios. Thus, teachers become the planets most valuable asset. Not only do they transfer the values and principles but they also equip minds to generate scenarios.

Works Cited

Groff, Linda. “ Trends, Models, Paradigms of change: Preparing for life and human evolution in the 21^st Century. Abstract/ Outline for World Future Preconference Course. Minneapolis, MN. 29 July 2007.

Hayward, Peter and Rowena Morrow. Integral Futures Workshop. World Futures 2007 Conf. 29 July – 1 August 2007. Prospective Services Au.

Laszlo, Ervin. The Chaos Point. Virginia: Hampton Roads. 2006

Voros, Joseph. “Reframing environmental scanning: an integral approach.” Foresight. 3.6 (2001): 533-52

Wilber, Ken. A Theory of Everything. Boston: Shambala. 2001